Dem Bums – A Dodgers Blog

Following the Dodgers and Exploring The Team’s Past

[powered by WordPress.]

February 13, 2006

J.D. Drew’s Health Key to Dodgers Success in 2006

by @ 10:48 am. Filed under 2006 Season

There’s no doubt the biggest free agent signing for the Dodger’s last year was Rafael Furcal.  Cesar Izturis got the bulk of the time at shortstop in 2005, and he sported a rather unhealthy OPS+ of 68.  While Furcal’s OPS+ was right at the league average (100), that’s still a big upgrade over what we’ve had over the past few years.  Another positive is that Furcal’s stolen base percentage the last two years has been 82%, which is above the magic number of 75% to where a player helps or hurts his team on the base paths.

Even more important to the team’s success, in my opinion, is the health of J.D. Drew.  After a monster season in 2004 for the Braves, J.D. Drew found himself living up to his “injury prone” reputation and played in only 72 games after having both shoulder and wrist surgery last season.  This report from about a month ago isn’t too encouraging, but if Drew can get back into the lineup on a regular basis by say May 1, it’ll go a long way towards giving the Dodgers a chance in winning the NL West.

On Drew’s Baseball Prospectus Pecota card, the 50th percentile is showing him with 489 plate appearances.  This is well south of the 644 plate appearances in 2004, but it’s over 50% more then he had in 2005.  They project a solid line of .298/.409/.548 with a VORP of 42 (last year his VORP was 27).  I think the best Dodger fans could hope for is his 75th percentile, which would give him 535 plate appearances, a 58 VORP and a line of .305/.422/.564, which is eerily similary to what he did for the Braves in 2004.

So while I’m not sure Drew will ever live up to the $11 million he’ll be making in 2006, having him out on the field in May will be probably the biggest factor in the Dodgers success next year.

2 Responses to “J.D. Drew’s Health Key to Dodgers Success in 2006”

  1. mjw101 Says:

    The same can be said for injury prone players like Nomar and Mueller.

    Plus Kent had surgery on his wrist and Furcal had surgery on his knee. They say it was minor, but when the Dodgers say an injury/surgery is minor sometimes the player ends up being out for the year.

    O.Perez was complaining of shoulder soreness over the winter and Brazoban was rumored to have been sent home early from winter ball because of an arm injury.

    Gagne says he is healthy, but that is what they said last year at this time.

    All in all it does not bode well for the future when the average age is over 30.

  2. Dem Bums - A Dodgers Blog » Tigers Hammer Dodgers and More From Frank McCourt Says:

    [...] Only in a spring game can you lose 12-3 and still find postives.  J.D. Drew continues to hit the ball well and if he’s 100% heading into opening day, I’ll be pretty happy.  Drew hit his second homerun of the spring and he also tripled.  He’s now hitting .417 in 12 at bats and he has five runs and two walks.  He’s sporting an impressive .417/.500/1.083 line.  I talked about how important Drew would be if this team is going to succeed this year and so far, I like what I’m seeing. [...]

Leave a Reply

[powered by WordPress.]

Dodgers Resources

Baseball Historians

Minor League Blogs

GetMeIn.com

Don Drysdale Information

Dodgers Links

General Baseball Links

Other Team Blogs

internal links:

categories:

search blog:

archives:

other:

Add to Google Subscribe in Bloglines

28 queries. 1.437 seconds